(Bloomberg) -- Israel’s military has been poised for months for an offensive on the southern Gazan city of Rafah, part of its campaign to eradicate Hamas — the Iran-backed militant group behind the Oct. 7 attack on Israel in which 1,200 people were killed and 250 kidnapped. The prospect of another major assault on the territory has drawn criticism from the US, Egypt and other countries that are concerned about civilians in the enclave’s one remaining safe haven, including more than 1 million displaced people. Israel says Rafah harbors thousands of fighters and some leaders of Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the US and European Union. As tensions between Israel and Iran eased after an exchange of attacks in mid-April, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to “increase the military and diplomatic pressure” on Hamas, suggesting an assault on Rafah may be imminent.
1. What is Rafah?
Rafah is the southernmost city in the Gaza Strip with a population, normally, of about 280,000 people. It lies near Gaza’s 12-kilometer long border with Egypt and is the location of the main crossing point to the North African nation. Egypt closed the border for people trying to flee combat zones at the start of the war and reopened it for humanitarian aid during a pause in fighting in November. While the crossing was set up mainly for pedestrians, it’s now used for the transportation of critical assistance into Gaza, though the ongoing hostilities hamper its distribution. Some aid also flows through another crossing in the area, Kerem Shalom, connecting Gaza with Israel.
When Israel began its invasion of Gaza in October last year, the military organized so-called safe corridors for people to move away from the initial bombardment and ground battles in the north. But the army then pushed south toward Khan Younis and has now effectively cornered more than half of Gaza’s population of about 2.2 million people in the Rafah region, according to the United Nations.
2. What’s it like in Rafah now?
Images show a city dotted with tents and makeshift homes in densely-populated clusters with people facing a shortage of food and medicine and nowhere else to go. The UN says the “scarcity of food, clean water, health services and sanitation facilities have led to preventable diseases and deaths.” It describes Rafah as “a pressure cooker of despair.”
Conditions are worse in northern Gaza. A UN-backed report in March said famine is imminent there, with 70% of the population on the brink of starvation. Some two dozen people, including babies, had died from hunger in the north by the end of March, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
3. What’s the Israeli perspective?
Netanyahu has said it would be “impossible” to achieve the goal of destroying Hamas if Israel were to leave what he says are the group’s last battalions in Rafah. Israeli military officials estimate 5,000 to 8,000 Hamas fighters are holed up there.
The PM is treading a fine line as he tries to appease his far-right, pro-war coalition partners at home and cooperate with the US, which has assisted Israel’s war effort by expediting shipments of munitions to its ally. The US has worked with Egypt and Qatar to secure a cease-fire and freedom for the remaining 130 people still thought to be held hostage, though the Israeli government says only about 100 are alive.
Israel is under mounting pressure from the US and other countries about the high death toll in Gaza, where more than 34,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry. Netanyahu said at least 13,000 of the dead as of early March were militants.
US President Joe Biden has warned Israel not to proceed with a broader incursion into Rafah without a plan to shield civilians, and described its response to the Oct. 7 attacks as “over the top.” Biden told Netanyahu in a phone call April 4 that continued US support for the war against Hamas depended on new steps to protect civilians.
4. What’s Egypt’s perspective?
The prospect of an Israeli offensive on Rafah raises fears of spillover effects in Egypt. The concerns are that Hamas militants would flee across the border, causing security problems in Egypt, and that cornered civilians would follow suit and be prevented by Israel from ever returning to Gaza.
Tensions between Israel and Egypt, the first Arab country to make peace with Israel, have been running high since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, especially after an Israeli think tank suggested Egypt open the Sinai Desert for displaced Palestinians. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi and other officials have ruled out any notion of Gazans being relocated to Egypt, saying such a move may pose a security threat and undermine Palestinian hopes for their own state.
Peace with Egypt is important for Israel. Relations have been calm since the two nations signed a US-mediated peace treaty in 1979, leading to Israel’s withdrawal from the Sinai Peninsula. In return, Egypt has maintained a demilitarized zone along their border.
--With assistance from Mike Cohen, Ethan Bronner and Henry Meyer.
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