(Bloomberg) -- Sri Lankan assets look set for more losses amid risks to the International Monetary Fund’s loan program after key candidates vowed to renegotiate terms after elections, according to analysts.
Stocks have slumped 13% from a May peak, while the nation’s dollar bonds are headed for their worst quarter in two years. The rupee has slipped more than 1% this month. Opposition leaders have said they want to rework the terms as the IMF loan program entailed several austerity measures, including higher taxes.
There is a risk of a stand-off with the IMF if one of the frontrunners Anura Kumara Dissanayake wins as his party may try to revise debt restructuring terms while giving ambitious tax reliefs, according to Bloomberg Economics. The continuation of the IMF loan program is crucial for the island nation as it underpinned the economic recovery following a default in 2022.
“There is a worry about negative repercussions if there is an effort to tinker or renegotiate either the current IMF program or the proposed agreement with debt holders,” said Navin Ratnayake, the head of research at Colombo-based John Keells.
The presidential polls on Saturday are a tight race between incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and Dissanayake.
“If Premadasa or Wickremesinghe wins, we could see bonds rebound sharply,” said Patrick Curran, senior economist at Tellimer Ltd. However, bonds will plummet further if Dissanayake wins, he added. “The election outcome will have a significant impact on Sri Lanka’s nascent recovery and long-term policy trajectory.”
Not everyone is pessimistic. Analysts at Citigroup Global Markets said the current price volatility for Sri Lanka’s bonds present a buying opportunity, especially if the notes fall before elections. The buy-on-dips view is also echoed by Aviva Investors Global Services.
Sri Lanka on Thursday said it has reached an agreement in principle with bondholders to restructure its debt.
For now, investors are cautious. Both Premadasa and Dissanayake want to open fresh talks with the IMF due to the austerity measures implemented as part of the program.
The loan program will still ultimately prove the most viable way forward, but “the path to get there could well prove to be bumpy,” said Carmen Altenkirch, an analyst at Aviva Investors in London.
--With assistance from Malavika Kaur Makol.
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