(Bloomberg) -- Israel’s operation against Hezbollah members in Lebanon and Syria through booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies was years in the making, and its use now ramped up a high-risk campaign aimed at deeply disrupting the group.
The tactical goal has been to set back the Iran-backed organization by going after its operatives, infrastructure and supply lines, according to people with knowledge of the situation as well as experts on Hezbollah.
The strategy appears to have worked, weakening Hezbollah and tarnishing its standing both in Lebanon and across the region within Iran’s so-called axis of resistance.
The operation was part of the response to Hezbollah missile strikes on northern Israel in the aftermath of the attack by Palestinian militant group Hamas last October; Israel’s other actions have included the assassination of key figures, precision strikes and an audacious commando operation in Syria earlier this month.
On Thursday, Israel carried out extensive air strikes across southern Lebanon, a further sign of its focus on Hezbollah and deep concern about the heavily armed Iran-backed militant group on its border.
But having upped the ante in the confrontation, the question now is whether it may provoke an all-out war between Israel and its long-time foe, including a potential land incursion into Lebanon. Israel hasn’t claimed responsibility for the pager and walkie-talkie operations.
“The last 11 months have convinced Israelis that they can’t kick the can down the road anymore on Hezbollah,” said Matthew Levitt, a leading expert on the group who previously directed the counterterrorism program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
On Thursday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said his group has been dealt a “big and harsh blow” but vowed revenge and said it’s determined to continue attacks on northern Israel unless the war in Gaza comes to an end.
The pager and walk-talkie plans were put in place by Israel years ago as a measure to use in case of a major war with Hezbollah, said two people with knowledge of the plan. Fearing that it was going to be compromised, and wanting to put Hezbollah on the back foot, Israel decided to set off the devices in a use-it-or-lose-it act, the people said.
The operation killed more than 30 Hezbollah operatives and seriously injured or maimed hundreds, according to tallies by some Israeli and Lebanese media outlets.
The Lebanese government, which has accused Israel of being behind it, said Thursday that at least 37 people have been killed and more than 2,900 wounded in both attack waves.
Syria Operation
Israel has broadened its campaign elsewhere too. Earlier this month, it carried out one of its riskiest operations in Syria since it launched strikes in 2012 against Iranian and Hezbollah capabilities in the war-torn country that have been crucial to the group’s weapons supplies.
On the night of Sept. 8, Israel launched a series of major air strikes against Syrian military positions and buildings in the west of the country, according to Syrian media and a person with direct information from the ground. This was followed by an airdrop of Israeli special forces at the entrance of an underground bunker complex at a mountainside in the area, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity. This was the first known ground raid by Israeli forces in Syria since 2011. Israel hasn’t acknowledged the raid.
The target was an underground facility where Iranian military experts have been working for years on missiles and rockets that are delivered to Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon, the person said. The Israelis extracted samples and documents from the place before blowing it up.
Israel’s willingness to mount a perilous ground raid in an area considered to be a stronghold of the regime of President Bashar Al-Assad, which has been dependent on Iran and Hezbollah for its survival, underscores a determination to chip away at Hezbollah’s capabilities.
The raid, coupled with the killing of Iranian generals in Damascus in April who had played a crucial role in supporting Hezbollah’s operations, as well as the targeting of weapon and missile facilities in both Lebanon and Syria, have dented the group’s ability to replenish its arsenal, say experts.
According to Israeli assessments, Hezbollah’s pre-war stockpile included around 50,000 rockets with ranges of up to 125 kilometers (78 miles), hundreds of precision-guided surface-to-surface missiles, and around 1,000 explosives-laden drones and guided anti-tank missiles. Hezbollah personnel numbered in the tens of thousands before the war with about 5,000-6,000 being elite forces.
A string of targeted assassinations over the past year, and the gadget attacks this week, have killed at least 460 high- and mid-level Hezbollah commanders and operatives, estimates Ali Al-Amin, a Lebanese commentator who ran against Hezbollah in parliamentary elections in 2018.
Among those killed by Israel was Fuad Shukr, a senior adviser to Nasrallah. Others had “battle-tested expertise” that will be hard to replace easily, said Al-Amin.
Many in Israel are now arguing that this is the ideal opportunity to go after Hezbollah’s arsenal of missiles, and particularly the precision-guided missiles.
“Hezbollah is currently in the worst state it has been in since the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006,” Ehud Yaari, a prominent Israeli commentator wrote Thursday on the website of Israel’s Channel 12. “We must not allow it to recover from this blow.”
But Al-Amin warned that while Hezbollah’s image of “invincibility” has been shattered, any wider operation will work in its favor as happened in past Israeli campaigns in Lebanon.
“An incursion means taking the battle to another place and more enemies for Israel,” he said.
--With assistance from Dan Williams.
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